Reviews | Trump faces five major investigations. It has dozens of exits.


By Ankush Khardori

Illustrations by Antonio Giovanni Pinna

Mr. Khardori is a lawyer and legal analyst. He spent several years as a prosecutor at the Ministry of Justice. Prior to joining the federal government, he defended corporate clients against charges of fraud and other crimes.

Donald Trump and his business empire are currently the subject of no less than five major simultaneous investigations, a truly extraordinary challenge for anyone, let alone a former and possibly future President of the United States. These are complicated investigations, with long and winding roads to resolution. They involve dozens of federal and state investigators and witnesses across the country, from politicians eager to shield themselves from scrutiny to employees turning on their colleagues to a former president who knows how to navigate — and manipulate — the system. legal like no one else.

Trump faces five major investigations

The public has very little visibility into how these investigations are proceeding on a day-to-day basis, as government officials quietly gather evidence and plan their next actions. A number of unexpected developments — surprise witnesses, hung juries, and perhaps even a special advocate empowered to oversee Justice Department investigations — could slow or derail their work. The announcement of Mr. Trump’s presidential bid doesn’t halt any of those investigations, but it could affect how prosecutors weigh their options, and his particularly polarizing status could affect how judges and juries resolve. cases that go to trial. If he wins the election, he could end any ongoing federal prosecution or investigation once in office. Even at this point, some potential scenarios are possible to discern, including the possibility – as unlikely as it may seem – that all investigations will resolve in his favor, without conviction and without serious legal consequences. Based on interviews with experts and analysis of media reports, as well as the law itself, here is an in-depth look at some of the pathways through which such an outcome could occur.

Below we illustrate the probable milestones for prosecutors and other law enforcement officials, as well as offamps Mr. Trump could use to stay out of jail or otherwise mitigate the possible repercussions of these investigations.

The investigation of classified documents

Did Trump illegally remove classified White House documents and obstruct investigators?

before the trial

The Department of Justice concludes its investigation

Exit ramp
The Ministry of Justice decides not to file a complaint

The Ministry of Justice decides to file a complaint

Exit ramp
Trump rushes into his presidential campaign – now facing impeachment

Trump is elected president

test

Exit ramp
Trump gets a dismissal

The Department of Justice admits defeat and decides not to try Trump again

after the trial

Exit ramp
Trump opposes prison sentence

Exit ramp
Trump extends sentencing until after election

Trump is elected president

Exit ramp
Trump tries to overturn the verdict

Trump asks judge to overturn verdict

Trump turns to appeals court

The Supreme Court makes a final decision, confirming or quashing the conviction

Exit ramp
Trump is running for president from prison

Trump is elected president and, still in prison, quickly forgives himself

The survey of January 6

Did Trump attempt to incite an insurrection, commit election fraud, or fraudulently raise funds in the run-up to Jan. 6?

before the trial

Prosecutors are looking closely at the days and weeks leading up to the riot

Exit ramp
Trump successfully invokes executive privilege

Exit ramp
The Ministry of Justice decides not to file a complaint

The Ministry of Justice decides to file a complaint

Justice Department charges Trump with violence on Capitol Hill

Justice Department accuses Trump of fake voter scheme

Court accuses Trump of fraudulent fundraising tactics

Justice accuses Trump of… something else

Exit ramp
Trump continues to run for president – even after the indictment

Trump is elected president

test

Exit ramp
Trump offers to dismiss the case

The Department of Justice admits defeat and decides not to try Trump again

after the trial

Exit ramp
Trump opposes jail time

Exit ramp
Trump extends sentencing until after election

Trump is running for president pending sentencing

Trump is elected president

Exit ramp
Trump tries to overturn the verdict

Trump turns to an appeals court

The Supreme Court makes a final decision, confirming or quashing the conviction

Exit ramp
Trump is running for president from prison

Trump is elected president

The Manhattan District Attorney’s investigation

Has the Trump Organization Committed Tax Fraud or Other Financial Crimes?

before the trial

test

Exit ramp
Jury acquits Trump Organization

after the trial

Exit ramp
Trump Organization Calls

Exit ramp
The Trump Organization suffers no major fallout

The Election Survey in Georgia

Did Trump break the law to try to undo his 2020 election loss in Georgia?

before the trial

Exit ramp
Trump allies avoid testifying

Exit ramp
DA’s office backs down and decides not to indict Trump

DA’s office lays charges

Exit ramp
Trump pushes ahead with his presidential campaign – now facing impeachment

test

Exit ramp
Trump offers to dismiss the case

Exit ramp
Trump returns case to Federal Court

Exit ramp
Jury acquits Trump

DA’s office admits defeat and decides not to try Trump again

after the trial

Exit ramp
Trump avoids jail

Exit ramp
Trump delays sentencing and continues to campaign

Trump is elected president

Exit ramp
Trump tries to overturn the verdict

Trump turns to appeals court

Exit ramp
Trump is elected president

The New York State Civil Case

Did Trump and his children lie to lenders and insurers about the Trump Organization’s financial situation?

before the trial

Exit ramp
Trump settles down with AG’s office

test

Exit ramp
Trump drops the case

Exit ramp
Trump mounts a successful defense

after the trial

Attorney General wins at trial

Exit ramp
Trump pleads for low monetary penalty

Previous The fourth major bank launches a program of small loans
Next Symbols not wholly owned by political parties can be recovered after election defeat: Delhi High Court